Wheat is still a tiny part of California’s economy: In 2021, it comprised 380,000 planted acres out of 27 million, or 1.4 percent, and it’s concentrated in the San Joaquin and Sacramento valleys and used mostly for animal forage. Desert Durum, a hybridized variety developed for pasta in the late 1970s, grows in the Imperial Valley, about 100 miles east of San Diego.
Dry-Farming in Dry California
Dryland or “dry” farming means growing crops without added irrigation, using rain and residual soil moisture in areas that receive about 10 to 20 inches of rain per year. The method incorporates planting and tilling techniques that take advantage of terraforms and topography to position plants where water will flow, collect, and percolate through the soil to keep it moist during the growing season. Before modern irrigation, “dry-farming” was just “farming.” As the climate changes, it is becoming a resilience strategy to cope with less water. California farmers also dry-farm wine grapes, tomatoes, squash, and beans.
“Dryland wheat is likely to expand in California as scarcer water resources go to profitable crops.”
Some 120 to 130 years ago—when California was the nation’s breadbasket—most of the crop relied solely on rainfall. “Ten years ago, 80 percent of California wheat was irrigated,” said Carter. “Now some small-scale farmers are trying a dryland approach.”
Wheat is less water intensive than most of California’s other crops, making it well-suited to dry farming: It can be planted in winter, during the “rainy” season, and it’s one of the few crops that “will produce economically under dryland conditions,” wrote a USDA research soil scientist in Riverside back in 1970. Now, with limits on aquifer pumping imposed on growers by the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA), dry-farming wheat may be a viable alternative to letting fields go fallow due to lack of water.
University of California, Davis, has multiple studies on dry-farming or reduced irrigation, including a project to breed drought-resilient wheat. Studies show that a hybrid model—adding just 4 to 8 inches of irrigation to supplement natural rainfall—could be the sweet spot for both wheat and water conservation.
Terry Ellis works as an engineer for defense contractor Northrop-Grumman during the day and bakes at night and on weekends. (Photo credit: Leorah Gavidor)
“Dryland wheat is likely to expand in California as scarcer water resources go to profitable crops,” said U.C. Davis agricultural economics professor Daniel Sumner. “It makes sense instead of leaving unused fields unplanted. In good rain years, it can yield a harvest; in dryer years, it can be used for forage.”
That’s already happening in San Diego, with successful results. Ernie Klemm, forage manager at Konyn Dairy in San Pasqual Valley, has been dry-farming grains for 50 years—as food for cattle. Klemm oversees unirrigated fields of triticale and beardless barley, which grew to be 5.5 feet high in this exceptionally rainy year. But Klemm says he sees a decent harvest even in dry years.
Lucky for Reeske and the bakers, this was not a dry year. By March, Valley Center had received 15 to 20 inches of rainfall, about 150 to 200 percent above normal. Dry-farming wheat in San Diego seems viable in a rainy year like this one, but it’s hard to forecast how the seeds would do in a drought.
Avocados or Grains?
North American grain production is mostly concentrated in the Great Plains, where infrastructure and way of life have supported the Grain Belt economy for over 100 years. It’s hard for smaller grain producers in other areas to compete. In San Diego, the focus for farmers for the past 100 to 125 years has been citrus and avocado, which don’t grow well in many other places.
In 2020, avocados occupied 14,500 acres, the largest share of planted acreage in San Diego County, and brought in almost $153 million. Total citrus sales were $146 million. Hay and oats, the only grains on the county’s crop report, brought in just about $500,000.
Valley Center bean farmer Mike Reeske donated a half-acre to the wheat-growing experiment. (Photo credit: Leorah Gavidor)
A 2020 University of California Cooperative Extension study on double-planting avocado trees (which San Diego growers do to maximize water efficiency) estimated $10,000 net profit per acre; net returns for wheat in the Sacramento Valley, at maximum yield and highest market price, were $117 per acre in 2016, when the price per bushel was about $4. Wheat prices set records recently due to the war in Ukraine, when bushel price hit a high of $11.02 in March 2022.
Also in 2022, San Diego avocados brought in less than $100 million for the first time in more than 25 years. Productivity of trees dropped nearly 50 percent due to drought, though prices rose. Water costs and availability are major considerations. In Valley Center, an acre-foot of water for ag purposes costs $1,900, compared to about $80 in Kansas, the nation’s top wheat-producing state. An acre of avocados needs about 4 acre-feet, or about 40 to 50 inches of rain; wheat needs 12 to 15 inches.
Water is only part of the equation. “In San Diego and Los Angeles, the biggest challenge to wheat production is land cost,” said Carter at the Wheat Commission. “Land cost has pushed out lower-value crops. Farmers ask themselves, ‘Why am I selling wheat for $4 a bushel when that was the same amount my grandpa was getting for it?’”
Agricultural land values for avocados in San Diego and Riverside counties ranged from $13,300 to $35,000 per acre in 2020, while the average is $4,610 in Kansas. Cost to rent farmland in San Diego is three times the national average. That makes lower-profit wheat a pretty hard sell.
Some San Diego citrus and avocado growers are transitioning to other less thirsty crops, like wine grapes, to squeeze some profit from the land while reducing water use. Jameson Meust, who works on water efficiency with Mission Resource Conservation District, is interested in growing wheat as a cover crop in vineyards, though it hasn’t taken off in San Diego.
Reaping the Benefits—Literally
The California Wheat Commission touts the grain’s value as a rotational crop to help manage disease and improve soil conditions. Ellis the baker hopes small farms in San Diego will want to incorporate wheat into their rotations and supplement their income, while reaping the soil health benefits.
Klemm sees these benefits firsthand at Konyn Dairy. Growing grain not only feeds hungry cows, Klemm said; it also helps him retain topsoil, develop soil structure, and improve water filtration. But Klemm and the dairy are not concerned with separating the chaff and milling the wheat. They just cut it, bale it, and feed it to the cows. And they don’t worry about consistent quality, like Ellis and Velazquez would need for baking. Craig “Dr. K” Kolodge, who manages soils and compost for the dairy, said it would be tough to ensure predictable yield on rainwater alone.
Even with a steady supply, processing wheat in San Diego would be a challenge. But Lauren Silver, who mills flour fresh daily at her bakery in Pacific Beach, about 10 miles north of downtown San Diego, sees local wheat as a growing trend.
